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Analyst Boosts Disney+ Subscriber Forecast to 226 Million

According to Guggenheim Securities analyst Michael Morris, Disney+ could see a significant increase in subscribers than originally projected.  Morris made his forecast for the streaming service “to reflect the company’s announcement of 50 million global Disney+ subscribers as of April 8.”

Reports indicate he lowered his near-term financial estimates for Disney amid the coronavirus pandemic, but raised his 12-month stock price target from $100 to $108 “reflecting higher long-term estimates at Disney+.”

New projections suggest that Disney+, whose original series include The Mandalorian, will reach 226 million global subscribers by the end of fiscal year 2024, up from his previous estimate of 135 million subscribers. The analyst boosted his domestic Disney+ subscriber forecast from 59 million to 74 million and his international user prediction from 76 million to 153 million.

“For comparison, we forecast that Netflix will have 292 million global paying subscribers by year-end 2024, up from 167 million at the end of 2019,” Morris wrote.

Morris went on to say: “We expect investors to be particularly focused on Disney+ subscribers, average pricing and outlook. … Beyond Disney+, progress at Hulu (and to a lesser extent ESPN+), trends at media networks, including affiliate renewals and incremental ACC Network carriage, studio results driven by the releases of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Frozen 2, and parks trends will likely be in focus.”

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